The nag screen update has to be installed for it to pop-up.
Unchecking the “end of life” warning update will keep that from happening when doing XP updates.http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2335567/windows-xp-users-are-mistaking-microsofts-nag-screens-for-adware
By Carly Page
Fri Mar 21 2014, 11:19
SOFTWARE HOUSE Microsoft's Windows XP nag screens are not working as it had hoped, with users mistaking the pop-ups for adware.
Earlier this month, Microsoft started displaying pop-up warnings to Windows XP users, letting them know that the operating system (OS) is nearing End of Life and advising them that they need to upgrade to a newer version of Windows.