Author Topic: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?  (Read 11961 times)

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Offline mommydi

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Re: What happens when we come out.
« Reply #840 on: Tue Mar 31, 2020 - 22:34:12 »
I think the stupidity on tv and the hysteria caused by the media and some of the politicians is inflating the load on the medical system.  And now we gotta stay home because under order and then have hospitals threaten to ration care because of said stupidity by government officials and mass hysteria caused by media.

All the while the pro-aborts continue on with their non-essential baby killing in defiance of state executive orders, while church pastors get arrested.

It is all beyond retarded.  Economic disaster and civil liberties being trashed.  Our nation jumped the shark this year.  R.I.P.

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Re: What happens when we come out.
« Reply #840 on: Tue Mar 31, 2020 - 22:34:12 »

Offline mommydi

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Re: What happens when we come out.
« Reply #841 on: Tue Mar 31, 2020 - 23:10:24 »
Let's also remember, the governor of New York has released criminals into the streets over this - including multiple sex offenders and three child rapists.

Offline NorrinRadd

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Re: What happens when we come out.
« Reply #842 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 06:46:49 »
I think a lot of people don't understand that.

A couple of Pittsburgh nerds have addressed that.

Summary: The data related to purpose and benefits of the current "mitigation" strategies are being presented in an incomplete and therefore misleading fashion. Proponents are not making clear that the current strategies are only delay tactics, will have NO ultimate benefit if viable treatments are not developed and enacted quickly, and could actually lead to WORSE ultimate outcomes if the peak is delayed too far.

Offline NorrinRadd

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Re: What happens when we come out.
« Reply #843 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 06:52:58 »
I think the stupidity on tv and the hysteria caused by the media and some of the politicians is inflating the load on the medical system.  And now we gotta stay home because under order and then have hospitals threaten to ration care because of said stupidity by government officials and mass hysteria caused by media.

All the while the pro-aborts continue on with their non-essential baby killing in defiance of state executive orders, while church pastors get arrested.

It is all beyond retarded.  Economic disaster and civil liberties being trashed.  Our nation jumped the shark this year.  R.I.P.

Let's also remember, the governor of New York has released criminals into the streets over this - including multiple sex offenders and three child rapists.

Yep.

Plagues, storms, earthquakes, economic collapse in progress, nascent mental health crisis, pastors being arrested for holding church services, funerals being disbanded by police, riots imminent, calling evil good and good evil...

Too bad I'm a Partial Preterist.  I have no reason to expect a quick escape.

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Re: What happens when we come out.
« Reply #843 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 06:52:58 »
Pinterest: GraceCentered.com

Offline Carey

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Re: What happens when we come out.
« Reply #844 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 08:38:18 »
Yep.

Plagues, storms, earthquakes, economic collapse in progress, nascent mental health crisis, pastors being arrested for holding church services, funerals being disbanded by police, riots imminent, calling evil good and good evil...

Too bad I'm a Partial Preterist.  I have no reason to expect a quick escape.

 rofl  sorry was that inappropriate, cannot help it, that made me laugh, I am in the same boat as you.

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Re: What happens when we come out.
« Reply #844 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 08:38:18 »



Offline Carey

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #845 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 09:23:35 »
TC, am I to believe that the threat is exaggerated, or is it worse than we are being told, because you seem to be presenting conflicting arguments in other threads.  ???

 

Offline Texas Conservative

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #846 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 11:06:59 »
TC, am I to believe that the threat is exaggerated, or is it worse than we are being told, because you seem to be presenting conflicting arguments in other threads.  ???

China's numbers are exaggerated.  I believe they have had 10 times plus the number of cases and tens of thousands of deaths.   I believe overall, due to lack of testing that COVID19 might be more infectious than bad flu years, but that the overall mortality rate is the same at about 0.13%.

We will still need to develop some herd immunity to this virus, and our current pandemic "flatten the curve" actions will not stop the ultimate spread of the virus to millions of people, because eventually we will lift the isolation orders and the disease will spread.

Offline The Barbarian

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #847 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 11:27:54 »
I don't doubt that China is hiding the true numbers.   When the Wuhan outbreak stated, the government initially called it a hoax. Only after the deaths mounted, did they respond in an effective way. 

It's what authoritarian states do.

Quote
We will still need to develop some herd immunity to this virus, and our current pandemic "flatten the curve" actions will not stop the ultimate spread of the virus to millions of people, because eventually we will lift the isolation orders and the disease will spread.

That's not what flattening the curve is for.    It's to assure we don't end up like Italy, deciding who is going to have to die, because we don't have ventilators for them.


Online Jaime

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #848 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 11:34:57 »
I think he is saying exactly what you are saying. Flattening the curve is to keep medical facilities from  being overwhelmed at one time. But the total number of cases will likely not be reduced, but stretched over a longer period of time. The reduction in number of cases and/or deaths will happen because of herd immunity as TC said, and yes WITH or WITHOUT the flattened curve.
« Last Edit: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 14:53:59 by Jaime »

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #849 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 12:17:53 »
Again, the CDC estimate for deaths in the US October 1, 2019 through March 21, 2020 is 24,000 to 63,000.  And yet we are wiping out the whole of the US economy because of the China virus.  The price we will all pay for this fiasco will be much greater that tens of thousands of deaths due to the virus.  A collapsed economy due to government shutdown will be much worse than the great depression of the 30s.

Offline Carey

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #850 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 12:21:43 »
China's numbers are exaggerated.  I believe they have had 10 times plus the number of cases and tens of thousands of deaths.   I believe overall, due to lack of testing that COVID19 might be more infectious than bad flu years, but that the overall mortality rate is the same at about 0.13%.

We will still need to develop some herd immunity to this virus, and our current pandemic "flatten the curve" actions will not stop the ultimate spread of the virus to millions of people, because eventually we will lift the isolation orders and the disease will spread.

I understand why we are flattening the curve, and understand that myself and my family are likely to be infected at some point.  Here thanks to the tireless efforts of my wife and her coworkers we now have 1000 beds empty and available here in Calgary, and by April 18th we should have another 1500 available.  Preparation takes time, and we are buying as much time as we can.


Offline NorrinRadd

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #851 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 14:01:09 »
Frankly, I'd rather they drop the "mitigation" strategy and take the 2 or 3 million deaths, than continue trampling the Bill of Rights.

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #852 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 14:50:00 »
I heard a local doctor on the radio this morning say that the total number of deaths under a flattened curve will be virtually the same as the number of deaths under the normal Corona curve. I get the feeling that everyone who is sacrificing thinks somehow we are reducing the number of deaths. According to the doctor I heard, we will PEAK lower over a longer period of time, helping as everyone realizes to keep from overwhelming the hospitals. I “guess” the measures we are taking would accomplish that, but the same numbers are expected to  die over a longer period of time. Are we all on board for THAT? I didn’t think that was the end game in the beginning.
« Last Edit: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:39:32 by Jaime »

Offline Bemark

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #853 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 14:55:05 »
Depends if you are old or have a underlying condition. Even a fish gulps out of water trying to stay alive.

Yep it’s test test test delay delay delay, until a vaccine ...18 mths away or herd immunity. That’s about 85% of the population that has it , and gotten over it. So the USA has 189,000 cases. Let me think. 330million - 189 thousand = watching Netflix 15 times over .

Imagine if we had a virus that killed all it affected?  Its only been a couple of weeks and everyone’s climbing the walls. Don’t worry , people will revolt against it and that’s when it starts to get nasty. Civil unrest.

Yes the 19 is a nasty one for sure , but not as nasty as someone’s desire to live .


Offline Carey

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #854 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 14:55:40 »
I heard a local doctor on the radio this morning say that the total number of deaths under a flattened curve will be virtually the same as the number of deaths under the normal Corona curve. I get the feeling that everyone who is sacrificing thinks somehow we are reducing the number of deaths. According to the doctor I heard, we will PEAK lower over a longer period of time, helping as everyone realizes to keep from overwhelming the hospitals. I “guess” the measures we are taking would accomplish that, but the same expected numbers are expected to  happen over a longer period of time. Are we all on board for THAT?

 ???

We are reducing the number of deaths, your local doctor is at odds with every other professional I have heard, and frankly he is at odds with common sense. 

Offline Bemark

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #855 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:02:10 »
Once people realize they have been chosen , if not this time , then maybe next, selected to die for the common good of mankind , so THE OTHERS can get there Starbucks coffee or there child a happy meal.

Wouldn’t the world be better off without  black people or white . Look at all the problems they bring. Its a slippery path to go down. Do we dare tread it?


Offline Texas Conservative

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #856 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:05:47 »
I heard a local doctor on the radio this morning say that the total number of deaths under a flattened curve will be virtually the same as the number of deaths under the normal Corona curve. I get the feeling that everyone who is sacrificing thinks somehow we are reducing the number of deaths. According to the doctor I heard, we will PEAK lower over a longer period of time, helping as everyone realizes to keep from overwhelming the hospitals. I “guess” the measures we are taking would accomplish that, but the same numbers are expected to  die over a longer period of time. Are we all on board for THAT? I did ‘t think that was the end game in the beginning.

The quarantine is to help spread out the time of infections on purpose to give the hospitals better time to prepare for the long haul.  The misleading part of everything you hear on the news and from politicians is that end of quarantine will not be the ends of infections or of deaths due to the disease. One curve is compressed and steep and the other is shorter in height and yet much longer in length along the X axis.
« Last Edit: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:48:24 by Jaime »

Offline Carey

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #857 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:07:33 »
Depends if you are old or have a underlying condition. Even a fish gulps out of water trying to stay alive.

Yep it’s test test test delay delay delay, until a vaccine ...18 mths away or herd immunity. That’s about 85% of the population that has it , and gotten over it. So the USA has 189,000 cases. Let me think. 330million - 189 thousand = watching Netflix 15 times over .

Imagine if we had a virus that killed all it affected?  Its only been a couple of weeks and everyone’s climbing the walls. Don’t worry , people will revolt against it and that’s when it starts to get nasty. Civil unrest.

Yes the 19 is a nasty one for sure , but not as nasty as someone’s desire to live .

I suspect a vaccine might be necessary to develop herd immunity.  I don't think we know enough about the virus yet to determine if herd immunity may be acquired naturally through infection.  There is hope, but folks talk about it like it is a sure thing. 

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #858 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:08:08 »
Frankly, I'd rather they drop the "mitigation" strategy and take the 2 or 3 million deaths, than continue trampling the Bill of Rights.

the 2 or 3 million deaths is absolute scare tactics.  And I find the trampling on the Constitution ridiculous and sad.

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #859 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:09:53 »
I suspect a vaccine might be necessary to develop herd immunity.  I don't think we know enough about the virus yet to determine if herd immunity may be acquired naturally through infection.  There is hope, but folks talk about it like it is a sure thing.

Iceland has tested vast amounts of its population.  About 50% of those tested were positive and asymptomatic.  Herd immunity needs to happen through infection when the hospitals are ready.  And we can't wait 18 months for a vaccine or we might find we've lost much more people to starvation and suicide due to mental illness.

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #860 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:13:14 »
Once people realize they have been chosen , if not this time , then maybe next, selected to die for the common good of mankind , so THE OTHERS can get there Starbucks coffee or there child a happy meal.

Wouldn’t the world be better off without  black people or white . Look at all the problems they bring. Its a slippery path to go down. Do we dare tread it?


 ::eatingpopcorn:

Offline Carey

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #861 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:16:06 »
Iceland has tested vast amounts of its population.  About 50% of those tested were positive and asymptomatic.  Herd immunity needs to happen through infection when the hospitals are ready.  And we can't wait 18 months for a vaccine or we might find we've lost much more people to starvation and suicide due to mental illness.

Sorry, but I am not sure how that stat relates to developing herd immunity, could you please clarify?  Thanks.

Offline mommydi

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #862 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:18:14 »
I suspect a vaccine might be necessary to develop herd immunity.  I don't think we know enough about the virus yet to determine if herd immunity may be acquired naturally through infection.  There is hope, but folks talk about it like it is a sure thing.
I'm wondering if we have already been developing herd immunity and continue to do so now - they're just not calling it that.

Just because most shops/stores are closed, doesn't mean no one is out there working and coming in contact with people.  My grandson's friends who have a lawn business just came by to mow. I went out for a little visit (kept my distance) and I asked the one who owns the business if he's losing customers. He said so far, he's not. Everyone is calling for their spring clean up and scalp. People in oil field related jobs are still working. Some men's ministry of some kind is building something behind my house. None of them have slowed down through this. They're out there today. Another one of my grandson's friends stopped by for a minute while we were all out in the front yard and said he's on his way to work. He's a welder. We have people crowding into grocery stores. There's still a large number of people here who are coming into contact with each other.


Officials are now saying corona has probably been here since January or earlier. I think herd immunity is probably already building.


Offline mommydi

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #863 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:26:35 »
I was just chatting with my youngest daughter. She's in law school full time and has a job, too. She's doing all classes online now, and working from home. I just asked her if she had heard if any of her classmates or coworkers have been getting ill. She said - not a one. She also said, "Something went through here like a wildfire in February, that wasn't the flu, so we're thinking those of us who were so sick probably had it then."
They guys who just came by to mow - I asked them the same question. Only one of them knew someone who has corona. He said it's his sister's college roommate who picked it up on spring break. However all of them said they thought it went through here earlier because so many of them were sick with something like the flu but tested negative for flu.



Offline mommydi

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #864 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:33:17 »
Iceland has tested vast amounts of its population.  About 50% of those tested were positive and asymptomatic.  Herd immunity needs to happen through infection when the hospitals are ready.  And we can't wait 18 months for a vaccine or we might find we've lost much more people to starvation and suicide due to mental illness.

Agreed.
I just saw a young friend of mine on facebook trying to sell things to buy something for his daughter's birthday. He lost his job with the shutdown.
My parents are growing sadder - thinking they may have to spend their last couple of years confined inside their home.

This is going to start messing with people's heads big time - and soon.

Offline Rella

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #865 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:34:12 »
I suspect a vaccine might be necessary to develop herd immunity.  I don't think we know enough about the virus yet to determine if herd immunity may be acquired naturally through infection.  There is hope, but folks talk about it like it is a sure thing.

Perhaps a vaccine, yes.

Perhaps acquired through infection, yes.

Or perhaps the desired effect would be a combination of both.

Infection weeding out the undesirables of the old, infirm, and compromised who will surly die once infected and then the miracle shot to save the rest of humanity.

It is a certainly we, as country, cannot sustain 12 to 18 months of house arrest before we implode economically.

Sooner or later someone will need to take the bull by the horns and make a decision.

I still think things will get better on Nov. 4.


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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #866 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:36:58 »
I'm wondering if we have already been developing herd immunity and continue to do so now - they're just not calling it that.

Just because most shops/stores are closed, doesn't mean no one is out there working and coming in contact with people.  My grandson's friends who have a lawn business just came by to mow. I went out for a little visit (kept my distance) and I asked the one who owns the business if he's losing customers. He said so far, he's not. Everyone is calling for their spring clean up and scalp. People in oil field related jobs are still working. Some men's ministry of some kind is building something behind my house. None of them have slowed down through this. They're out there today. Another one of my grandson's friends stopped by for a minute while we were all out in the front yard and said he's on his way to work. He's a welder. We have people crowding into grocery stores. There's still a large number of people here who are coming into contact with each other.


Officials are now saying corona has probably been here since January or earlier. I think herd immunity is probably already building.

 ::smile::  I hope so, I truly do.

Really the biggest impact on my economy has been the price of oil, and entertainment venues.  We are down to only essential businesses, but that list is pretty all inclusive, and those not on it have found ways to get around it, such as through internet sales.  My son works for Visions electronics, they are essential because people might need a computer.  They aren't selling many computers but they are selling a lot of big TV's.  rofl

What is most remarkable is my local hobby shop, they are one of my tenants, and I am one of their better customers.  They have been struggling for some time now, and with the new regulations on drones it has only been getting worse.  They have done more in sales in the last month than most of last year. 

Offline Rella

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #867 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:37:15 »
the 2 or 3 million deaths is absolute scare tactics.  And I find the trampling on the Constitution ridiculous and sad.

2or 3million is less then 1% of 325 million population.

Isn't that what they have been monitoring.  Would fall right in line then.

It will not be 2 or 3 million....

Offline Carey

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #868 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:41:42 »
Agreed.
I just saw a young friend of mine on facebook trying to sell things to buy something for his daughter's birthday. He lost his job with the shutdown.
My parents are growing sadder - thinking they may have to spend their last couple of years confined inside their home.

This is going to start messing with people's heads big time - and soon.

It already has, I am certain many folks have already taken their lives because of this.  Suicides often go unreported by news media, and this is probably especially true during this crisis.

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #869 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:44:37 »
Carey, the common sense of not overwhelming the hospitals is the only advantage. There would be more deaths to some degree with overwhelming the hospitals, but the number of projected deaths under each curve is pretty much equal. Again, is this what we signed on for? TC is saying the same thing as I am. Flattening the curve doesn’t necessarily translate into massively fewer deaths. It does give us better hospital access and utilization, yet pretty much the same number of deaths spread over a longer period of time. As with any math class or statistics class, the area under the curves or total number of deaths in this case is pretty much equal. The graphs don’t lie. If they do, we turned the key off on the world economy for something we might not have totally  signed on to!



« Last Edit: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:51:33 by Jaime »

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #870 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:45:17 »
2or 3million is less then 1% of 325 million population.

Isn't that what they have been monitoring.  Would fall right in line then.

It will not be 2 or 3 million....

Naw.  Fauci, the guru himself said that mortality rates are more akin to a bad flu year.  So about 0.13% mortality rate.

Rarely does a virus infect all of a country.  Most flu years are around 40+ million estimated infections by CDC.

The questions that determine how many deaths are:
A)Will this quarantine give hospitals time to prepare for the worst case patients?
B) How infectious is Corona?  Will it infect 80 million, etc?


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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #871 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:46:14 »
Sorry, but I am not sure how that stat relates to developing herd immunity, could you please clarify?  Thanks.

We need people to get infected to develop herd immunity.

Offline mommydi

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Re: The Coronavirus: Concerned or not?
« Reply #872 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 15:53:43 »
Naw.  Fauci, the guru himself said that mortality rates are more akin to a bad flu year.  So about 0.13% mortality rate.

Rarely does a virus infect all of a country.  Most flu years are around 40+ million estimated infections by CDC.

The questions that determine how many deaths are:
A)Will this quarantine give hospitals time to prepare for the worst case patients?
B) How infectious is Corona?  Will it infect 80 million, etc?

I agree. It would be crazy if this thing infects "everyone." My oldest grandson has the strongest immune system of anyone I've ever known. He must have inherited that from his bio mother. He never caught all those colds, flus, stomach bugs that his friends had at school. Never seen anything like it. Glad for him, but it's strange he never catches illnesses like his friends and family does. Maybe he does but his immune system is so strong it fights it off with no symptoms? IDK, there's just a segment of the population that this virus will surely "pass-over."

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #873 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 16:25:00 »
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/489614-is-flattening-the-curve-bad-for-health

Quote from the article:

"Although a flatter curve may reduce deaths in particularly overburdened health systems, the net number of lives lost may not substantially differ over the course of the disease. The extent of long-run adverse health consequences, however, will increase with the extent of damage to the economy from prolonged efforts to flatten the curve."

In other words we need an economy to deal with the ravages of this disease and hospitals need a flattened curve, BUT the number of deaths will not be appreciably different. They will just accumulate over a longer period of time.
« Last Edit: Thu Apr 02, 2020 - 11:44:01 by Jaime »

Offline Carey

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Re: China's Coronavirus Numbers Are Bogus
« Reply #874 on: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 16:37:56 »
Carey, the common sense of not overwhelming the hospitals is the only advantage. There would be more deaths to some degree with overwhelming the hospitals, but the number of projected deaths under each curve is pretty much equal. Again, is this what we signed on for? TC is saying the same thing as I am. Flattening the curve doesn’t necessarily translate into massively fewer deaths. It does give us better hospital access and utilization, yet pretty much the same number of deaths spread over a longer period of time. As with any math class or statistics class, the area under the curves or total number of deaths in this case is pretty much equal. The graphs don’t lie. If they do, we turned the key off on the world economy for something we might not have totally  signed on to!

Hi Jamie,
From your post,
the total number of deaths under a flattened curve will be virtually the same as the number of deaths under the normal Corona curve.



The death rate is very dependent on treatment.  For those that have no access to treatment, the death rate and the hospitalization rate converge. We are buying time to not only lower demand per unit of time by spreading out that demand, we are also increasing capacity during that time so an ever increasing number or patients can be treated.  Both of these factors will significantly reduce the death rate, and the number of actual deaths.

Quote from: Jaime
It does give us better hospital access and utilization, yet pretty much the same number of deaths spread over a longer period of time.

Sorry Jaime, but I cannot fathom how you and this doctor came to these conclusions.

Just noticed your link, I will take a look later, got a few things to take care of.

« Last Edit: Wed Apr 01, 2020 - 16:41:36 by Carey »

 

     
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