Author Topic: The “Climate Change” Scenario  (Read 3083 times)

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Offline e.r.m.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #35 on: Wed Sep 08, 2021 - 20:30:28 »
Jaime,
Quote
Erm, this is a serious question, what is the optimum temperature situation in your opinion and why? Should the avg world temp be at 1700 levels, 1800 levels or 500 BC levels or what? And why? If we are warming too fast, what is just right and why? Should we strive to dial it back 12,000 years during an ice age, or some previous warming interglacial period? In the climate spectrum, where is optimum? If we know when we are out of whack wouldn’t we know when we are IN whack, or approaching whack? Or is it like the grass is always greener or browner in another Epoch?
Good question. You're asking what the baseline is.
I think it's asking a bit much for humans to live in the most optimal conditions at all times given the natural variation of climate. But there is a range that makes life on earth doable.
The optimal "range" is pretty wide falling somewhere between an ice age and the various alleged past exctinctions on the other end of the spectrum.
My concern is moving passed the hotter boundary of that range and not stopping. Where crops fail to the point of disrupting food supplies, economies are injured and unsustainable masses are displaced due to rising waters and otherwise uninhabitable environments, and increasingly less time is possible to spend outside due to intolerable heat, etc.
« Last Edit: Wed Sep 08, 2021 - 23:09:34 by e.r.m. »

Online Jaime

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #36 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 04:49:38 »
Thanks for your reply erm. I look at things in our world such as the Sahara desert and marvel that such gargantuan climate changes on a HUGE scale on our planet occurred without the negative influence of mankind causing it. That immense region of the planet that is the Sahara desert would probably be better off for its inhabitants if it had remained the Sahara forest, but it underwent drastic changes anyway. Without a drastic amount of glacial melting thousands of years ago, we wouldn’t have what is known as the Great Lakes. One of the world’s largest storehouse of fresh water. A feature we would surely hate being without. But the point is massive changes in climate occur with or without man being the perceived major cause.

Some look at fossil fuels with disdain. I look at them as a huge blessing from God put in place ages ago by an omnicient God who knew we would need them and exactly when and for how long.
« Last Edit: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 10:51:04 by Jaime »

Offline DaveW

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #37 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 04:55:35 »

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #37 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 04:55:35 »

Online 4WD

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #38 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 06:10:20 »
My concern is moving passed the hotter boundary of that range and not stopping. Where crops fail to the point of disrupting food supplies, economies are injured and unsustainable masses are displaced due to rising waters and otherwise uninhabitable environments, and increasingly less time is possible to spend outside due to intolerable heat, etc.
Even today, there are more deaths due to the cold than due to the heat so that it would seem that a higher temperature would ultimately be better for humanity.  Also we know that crops, generally, will be substantially improved with a higher concentration of CO2.  People may be required to move inland if indeed there results a rise in the sea level, but that is not all that significant.  Man certainly has the capability to adjust to that.

But beyond all that, I think it should be obvious that nothing that is being proposed by the present administration will have any impact whatever on global temperatures.  But it certainly will have a big negative impact on the quality of life in the U.S.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #38 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 06:10:20 »
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Online Jaime

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #39 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 07:53:19 »
My whole beef with all this is there have been warming periods in the past coming in cycles with and without man’s contribution. The common denominator is of course solar cycles and wobbles in the rotational axis of the Earth. Yes man contributes, but I agree with 4WD, man’s contribution is not the major contributor and man can’t possibly override the warming or cooling that occurs outside of man’s influence. We have had MUCH worse warming and cooling periods in the distant past with little to no impact from man than we could point to in the past 500 to 1000 years.
« Last Edit: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 10:43:32 by Jaime »

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #39 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 07:53:19 »



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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #40 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 12:43:30 »
My whole beef with all this is that the goony Leftists [Marxists] are using this phony climate change ideology to establish absolute control over the energy system of the country, the vehicles we buy, the way we travel, the way we heat our homes, the way we cook our food, the food we eat by limiting the raising of livestock, etc.  There is nothing good about the whole climate change war.  It is nothing but a power grab over the lives of the average U.S. citizen.  And that is just one of the appalling and disastrous actions of the Left.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #40 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 12:43:30 »

Offline Rella

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #41 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 14:39:06 »
My whole beef with all this is that the goony Leftists [Marxists] are using this phony climate change ideology to establish absolute control over the energy system of the country, the vehicles we buy, the way we travel, the way we heat our homes, the way we cook our food, the food we eat by limiting the raising of livestock, etc.  There is nothing good about the whole climate change war.  It is nothing but a power grab over the lives of the average U.S. citizen.  And that is just one of the appalling and disastrous actions of the Left.

One of the worst offenders in this whole climate change green thinking thing is the state of California.

They forbid the proper control of their forests by the removal of dead wood and brush
and all we hear about are all those infernos there.

Although the exact quantities are difficult to calculate, scientists estimate that wildfires emitted about 8 billion tons of CO2 per year for the past 20 years. In 2017, total global CO2 emissions reached 32.5 billion tons, according to the International Energy Agency.

It is estimated that wildfires make up 5 to 10 percent of annual global CO2 emissions each year.

So they are doing a bang up job of enhancing what they all are complaining about.
Proving it is all political.


People-watch-flames-from-the-Holy-Fire-outside-Glen-Ivy-Hot-Springs-in-Corona-California-southeast-o" border="0

Offline e.r.m.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #42 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 19:53:29 »
Jaime,
Quote
Thanks for your reply erm. I look at things in our world such as the Sahara desert and marvel that such gargantuan climate changes on a HUGE scale on our planet occurred without the negative influence of mankind causing it. That immense region of the planet that is the Sahara desert would probably be better off for its inhabitants if it had remained the Sahara forest, but it underwent drastic changes anyway. Without a drastic amount of glacial melting thousands of years ago, we wouldn’t have what is known as the Great Lakes. One of the world’s largest storehouse of fresh water. A feature we would surely hate being without. But the point is massive changes in climate occur with or without man being the perceived major cause.

Some look at fossil fuels with disdain. I look at them as a huge blessing from God put in place ages ago by an omnicient God who knew we would need them and exactly when and for how long.
Thank you for your response as well.
The logic that you present is that since man didn't influence the climate when we weren't around, then we can't be doing it now. That's the same logic used in my link. Since the island hasn't sunk in a thousand years, that means that is not what is happening now, as they sink. Just because we weren't the ones who did it before, it doesn't prohibit us from doing it now. There's no connection. For us to affect the climate now, does not require a resume of having done so in epochs past. We can still do it. I'm glad that wasn't your only point and you followed up with another post. In the next post you alluded that the eons long climate cycles is too big a process for us to detour or derail, like using too small a plastic rudder to turn a navy battle cruiser. Correct me if I'm wrong. This is a better argument than it happened without us, so we can't be involved now.
To your second argument I answer that it is still possible as long as we meet the requirements. We wouldn't know how malleable climate is until we try. We wouldn't know before because we weren't around to try. CO2 and methane are known to trap heat. That part is not still debated. It is established, it is proven it is accepted. The Earth would not be able to keep us warm without some degree of CO2 to keep the heat from floating back out in space. Consequently, if you continually add more CO2 without stopping, then more heat gets trapped, and so on and so forth. Yes, there is the sun, yes there are volcanic vents, yes there are forests breathing in and breathing out, and yes there is water vapor oh, and of course epic long climate cycles. Just like in a dish of food. Tbere are many ingredients, and processes that go into making a successful dish. And there are many versions of that same dish, depending on who makes it. But every successful dish has balance.  One thing is consistent. No matter who makes the dish, no matter what other ingredients go into that dish, if the cook keeps adding salt, and never stops, it will eventually and ultimately overpower everything else in that dish. (Yes, the analogy has limitations. Three day old raw eggs would also be bad, but the analogy holds). Even plants only absorb as much C02 as they need. They do not have a limitless absorption capacity. The more we add heat trapping gases to the atmosphere, the more it will strain all the systems designed to mitigate them. The more they accumulate, they will trap more heat. There is no way to get around this fundamental truth. And the more heat accumulates the more bad things happen. It happens to more vulnerable countries first. But it will happen whether to greedy power hungry, ulterior motive liberals or to life loving freedom fighting, fiscally responsible conservatives. It doesn't care.
« Last Edit: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 19:56:22 by e.r.m. »

Online Jaime

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #43 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 19:59:11 »
Erm, if it happened to a larger extent without us, my point is forces larger than man’s impact are at work. I am not trying to defer blame, but show, the larger influences at work with or without man. We don’t have the resources to reverse impact of solar cycles or axis wobbles, no matter how many cars we convert to electric. Sometime in the future these cycles will swing the other way with or without us breaking the bank unto economic ruin. Absolutely we need to go with alternative energy as soon as they are competitive in the market place, however wind and solar do not have a zero impact footprint especially with the rare earth metal mining around the world which is hugely polluting, not to mention the lithium mines in third world countries for electric car batteries. AND where does the power come from to charge  electric car batteries?  We will get to cleaner energy by market forces, and then the larger climate forces will still be in a warming mode until those cycles swing.

The US is already one of the cleanest air countries on earth, and we are 25 to 30 trillion dollars broke as China and India get a pass for the next 20 years to do what they want and belch out whatever CO2 they want. As I’m sure you know, their CO2 mixes in the entire world’s quantity of atmosphere. It doesn’t just affect China and India’s air. There has been tremendous progress in fuel efficiencies and such in this country in just 2 or 3 decades. My car gets 3 times the mileage of any car I owned in the first 30 or so years of my life.

Also, we haven’t got a clue what the accurate average global temp was accurately 100 years ago, with the advancement of accuracy in measuring techniques, technology and number and variety of testing sites. No the science is not settled no matter who screams and how loud one screams. By the way Florida should have been under 5 to 10 ft of sea water by now. What happened? Was that science settled?

We are likely not going to get there without MORE nuclear power that a lot of people are fearful of, so natural gas will likely be one of the cleaner, lowest CO2 polluting energy sources for several decades. The more we depend on wind and solar, the more we will be subject to rolling blackouts because our power grids need on demand energy or peaker capacity that only fossil fuel plants and nuclear can provide. Maybe there is a yet discovered energy source, but until then we are kind of in a pickle. AND a city like New Orleans is out to lunch living several feet below sea level in a bowl in a region that is at the same time freakin’ SUBSIDING. One might have to sacrifice unbearable humidity and alligators and move inland just a smidge.
« Last Edit: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 04:28:53 by Jaime »

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #43 on: Thu Sep 09, 2021 - 19:59:11 »

Offline Alan

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #44 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 07:11:34 »
@e.r.m.  I think the most important aspect to consider is the evidence. That is exactly what Jaime is referencing here; past evidence of climate cycles. We may be influencing the climate change to some minor degree, but certainly not to the effect that we can alter its path by eliminating fossil fuel consumption, the data simply doesn't support that narrative.


The Earth's population is expected to be nearly 11 billion by the year 2100. Is there really any reasonable way to nullify the carbon footprint with the ever-increasing demand for infrastructure?

Offline DaveW

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #45 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 07:31:58 »
One thing Jaime left off of his list was volcanic activity.  When a certain volcano erupted in the early 1800s it put much of Europe and the northeast US into a couple of year long cold snap.  It was snowing in New England in July and August of 1816.


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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #46 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 07:38:10 »
That is true Dave. The Year Without a Summer.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #47 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 07:40:22 »
Alan, ironically elites like Bill Gates have advocated population control and ironically are big financers of vaccines. Seems counter intuititive. UNLESS…… ::eek::
« Last Edit: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 07:43:14 by Jaime »

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #48 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 07:47:01 »
Electric vehicles/Solar is changing one source of pollution for another.  Instead of drilling for gas, we will cause pollution mining for lithium.  Perhaps better technologies will make it to market in the future to harness wind/solar and keep reliability without the need for rare earth elements, but we aren't there yet.  The environmental impact of solar/wind is much higher than generally reported.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #49 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 08:04:03 »
Absolutely! It doesn't matter if it's one big smoke stack on a power plant or thousands of little exhaust pipes out the backside of cars. Something's gotta burn with present technology. At least with natural gas, it is as clean, plentiful and reliable a primary energy as we have.
« Last Edit: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 08:08:58 by Jaime »

Offline DaveW

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #50 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 09:34:19 »
Solar panels are becoming more and more efficient in converting light to electricity with no carbon emissions at all.  Eventually that could replace all fossil fuels.

But from a systems engineering viewpoint, removing that much energy from the system will have some kind of unforeseen downside as well.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #51 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 09:42:43 »
Solar panels are becoming more and more efficient in converting light to electricity with no carbon emissions at all.  Eventually that could replace all fossil fuels.

But from a systems engineering viewpoint, removing that much energy from the system will have some kind of unforeseen downside as well.

No, it could not replace all fossil fuels.  We are making solar and wind components with fossil fuels.  Not to mention, when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine, electricity isn't available without battery backup, which is a further strain on rare earth metals, and another vector for pollution.  At this point, we are kicking the can into a different yard, we aren't really accomplishing anything as far as reducing environmental impact. 

Not to mention big solar arrays need good land.  I had a job I worked on for solar, have to change their plans and use a different parcel because from a civil engineering perspective, the land they had in mind wasn't able to adequately take all the structures. 

I am fine with more solar/wind.  They make me money.  Diversification of resources is good.  But we should know the impacts are not zero for "green" sources of energy.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #52 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 09:52:02 »
And for our growing demand on our grid, "on demand" energy is essential or rolling blackouts will become our ever present friends.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #53 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 09:55:43 »
And for our growing demand on our grid, "on demand" energy is essential or rolling blackouts will become our ever present friends.

A lot of people don't understand that energy is always on demand.  It is instantaneous, not stored.  On the power purchase side, typically energy is purchased from generation facilities in 15 minute periods to try to match demand and supply.  Sure there are BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems) but those are really more rare, and in some cases are used for peak shaving by smaller distribution utilities to avoid peak rates for periods of high demand.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #54 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 10:04:40 »
I'll try to respond to everybody with one big post a little later.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #55 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 10:13:09 »
No problem erm. I'm just glad you are back with us even for a little while. You were missed my friend.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #56 on: Fri Sep 10, 2021 - 10:16:52 »
A lot of people don't understand that energy is always on demand.  It is instantaneous, not stored.  On the power purchase side, typically energy is purchased from generation facilities in 15 minute periods to try to match demand and supply.  Sure there are BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems) but those are really more rare, and in some cases are used for peak shaving by smaller distribution utilities to avoid peak rates for periods of high demand.

Our problems here in Texas during winter Storm Uri back in February were textbook examples of what you are talking about. We were severely lacking in peak demand especially when solar and wind were disabled because of the storm. Not to mention the idiot ERCOT people somehow got the bright idea to shut off natural gas which powers the very power plants that generate the on demand power. Also some of those gas powered plant had been mothballed because of the enticing mirage of wind and solar power since both were basically useless either by icing over of the wind turbines or the extended cloud cover of the storm on the solar panel farms. Also since Texas' power grid was built as a stand alone grid and not connected to the rest of the nation. Summertime shortages are what REALLY worry me down here with 100 degree temperatures. It's one thing to sleep in front of the fireplace on 0 degree nights, but trying to sleep in a house heated up by triple digit temps?! No Bueno.

By the way what are the chances that the vaccine/variant frenzy froths plumb over as the election steal becomes more and more apparent? I certainly SEE that happening either by coincidence or design. Deflection is the soup of the day it seems.

Also rumor has it that the Deep State stole Bush's hurricane generator and converted it to a Polar Vortex Generator and targeted Texas because of it being a Red State and has a Governor that doesn't play ball with the Biden regime.  ::smile::
« Last Edit: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 15:42:19 by Jaime »

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #57 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 15:06:31 »
Thank you Jamie. Likewise.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #58 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:35:53 »
Alan,
Quote
@e.r.m.  I think the most important aspect to consider is the evidence. That is exactly what Jaime is referencing here; past evidence of climate cycles. We may be influencing the climate change to some minor degree, but certainly not to the effect that we can alter its path by eliminating fossil fuel consumption, the data simply doesn't support that narrative.

The Earth's population is expected to be nearly 11 billion by the year 2100. Is there really any reasonable way to nullify the carbon footprint with the ever-increasing demand for infrastructure?
I agree. There may be already be enough C02 in the atmosphere to trigger a runaway effect. Theoretically we may reduce emissions to reduce consequences, but we cannot take back what we already put in. And the growing population will make it increasingly difficult to reduce our output with the existing infrastructure. Unless we can create new infrastructure in a hurry.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #59 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:38:37 »
Maybe Billl Gates and Fauxi will figure out some population reduction.  ::whistle::

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #60 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:39:23 »
Texas Conservative,
Quote
Electric vehicles/Solar is changing one source of pollution for another.  Instead of drilling for gas, we will cause pollution mining for lithium.  Perhaps better technologies will make it to market in the future to harness wind/solar and keep reliability without the need for rare earth elements, but we aren't there yet.  The environmental impact of solar/wind is much higher than generally reported.
Agreed. Have you heard of the new sodium ion battery? No need for rare earth elements.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #61 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:42:11 »
Jaime,
Quote
Absolutely! It doesn't matter if it's one big smoke stack on a power plant or thousands of little exhaust pipes out the backside of cars. Something's gotta burn with present technology. At least with natural gas, it is as clean, plentiful and reliable a primary energy as we have.
If we could make one big Smoke Stack with natural gas as opposed to thousands of little exhaust pipes out of the back side of cars, it would make it a lot easier to capture the CO2.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #62 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:45:51 »
DaveW,
Quote
Solar panels are becoming more and more efficient in converting light to electricity with no carbon emissions at all.  Eventually that could replace all fossil fuels.

But from a systems engineering viewpoint, removing that much energy from the system will have some kind of unforeseen downside as well.
We gotta keep trying to learn to close these gaps.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #63 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:47:39 »
Well we better get a bunch of charging stations built and not just electric cars.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #64 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:52:12 »
Solar is a LONG ways away from being sizable alternative. And the more solar we have the less dependable and more rolling blackouts we will have with peak demand. Cold weather blackouts are one thing, and hot weather blackouts are quite another. During winterstorm Uri, we just put the contents of our fridge ina couple of ice chests and put them open in the garage.
« Last Edit: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:55:36 by Jaime »

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #65 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 20:56:53 »
Jaime, agreed and tragic irony, because the more we use, the hotter we make it. I believe we can get there if we have enough time, which it does not seem we do. We started too late. We need to buy time in the form of carbon sequestration.
« Last Edit: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 21:04:39 by e.r.m. »

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #66 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 21:07:31 »
I bet we have the time. I doubt we will destroy ourselves by ambient temperature caused by too much CO2. We are likely going to accomplish it much quicker by other means. If we don’t fix our elections, we’re pretty much toast by the next  national election. Climate-wise we got quite a bit more time than that. And we are far more adaptable to climate change than we are some of the changes we have seen in destructive government policies in 8 months. It’s mind boggling.
« Last Edit: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 21:14:48 by Jaime »

Offline e.r.m.

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #67 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 21:16:18 »
Jaime,
Those living in nations most affected like Bangledesh and Marshall Islands would beg to differ.
« Last Edit: Fri Sep 24, 2021 - 18:34:26 by e.r.m. »

Online Jaime

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #68 on: Sat Sep 11, 2021 - 21:24:55 »
Bangladesh AND the world  OWES China for a lot of their worries being by far the biggest offender that isn’t addressed by global climate accords. That can’t happen. But it is. I read sometime ago that China averages bringing on a new coal power plant every WEEK. They are too big an economy to get a developing nation pass. If we flipped a switch and had zero CO2 China would still be the 800 pound gorilla in the room. They only dream of having our clean air. But they ARE good at cyber stealing our elections. They in my opinion are our existential threat, and ultimately the world’s.
« Last Edit: Fri Sep 24, 2021 - 04:31:22 by Jaime »

Offline Wycliffes_Shillelagh

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Re: The “Climate Change” Scenario
« Reply #69 on: Sun Sep 12, 2021 - 00:14:39 »
What I want to know is what is the correct climate we are supposed to have? If it is perceived we are warming for whatever reason, what is the proper climate we should have and why?
The world in a glacial age, but currently we are in a inter-glacial period - a warm-ish period that is bracketed by ice ages.

The hubbub about global warming is basically speculation that instead of a inter-glacial period, we might be ending a glacial age altogether (because global warming) and instead entering a new tropical age (slightly higher temps and significantly higher atmospheric CO2).