How long would slavery have survived?

[Logismos]

1. I don't loathe Republicans. I voted for bush twice and I would vote for McCain tomorrow if he was on the ticket. Don't presume to know me.

2. I don't blame all the ills of today on the decisions of the Civil War era. The events of that period were part of a long chain of events. Had those events been different, the rest would also be different. The question is the extent to which they would be different, which we can only guess at.

3. The South was about 1/3 of the US population in the late 1800s. The US would have still become a industrial powerhouse, but a less significant one. The division of the US could have possibily inturrupted the US economic imperialism of Latin America and the pacific. Extreme nationalistic competition between the Confederate States and the US may have altered involvement overseas. The list of things that could have been significantly altered is huge. America's involvement in WWI is already something that barely happened (and shouldn't have happened). Had America itself been different its completely possible that decsion would have been different as well.

4. Ultimately no one knows and there is no right or wrong answer to these questions of what would have happened.

[normfromga]

This is a tough question because had South been allowed to break away, then the rest of history after that point would have unfolded differently. The US would have been weaker. In the early 1900s the US wouldn't have had the ability to emulate Europe and become the miniature imperialistic world power that it became by 1900. It probably would not have entered WWI, thus there would have been no Great Depression or Worldwide flu epidemic. Thus no fascist dictators would havehad the opportunity to rise to power and WWII would have never happened, nor a Cold War (including Korean War and Vietnam War) and no genocide of millions of people including Jews. Thus there would have been no justification for Israel to be created in 1948, and so Arab nations wouldn't have any reason to be ticked off at the West for supporting what they see as Israeli occupation and therefore there would be no Islamic Fundamentalist movement and no 9/11 or Iraq war. Of course, other things probably would have occurred instead that would have been equally stupid.

If the Confederacy was allowed to remain separate, they may find themselves between the rock and the hard place.  

1. Presuming that the North would pass some kind of legislation outlawing slavery, slaves would continue to escape north, with no more "Dred Scott" decision guaranteeing their return.

2.  Their best customer and allie, Great Britain, will eventually put teeth into their high ideals concerning Emancipation, and discontinue commerce with nations relying on slave labor.

As to the effect on the Union, or World History in general, I find nearly point taken a non sequitur:

Even taking the results of the Spanish American War into consideration, we were hardly an "imperialistic world power", even in miniature, by the beginning of the last century.  Cuba's independence, our purchase of the Philippines, and Spain's secession of Puerto Rico and Guam hardly made us a significant colonial power.

Likewise, our timidity in entering WWI, and our non-aggressive bargaining at Versailles also shows that imperialistic was hardly an apt description for US.

But, even if your descriptions were apt, I am not sure how the secession would have much influence on this period.  I would be surprised if our isolationist views was a "Southern" thing, and to wage war, you need men, money, and materiel, and I am not sure a truncated Union would be lacking in any of these.

Of course, if the South kept Missouri, so that Black Jack Pershing, as well as some of our other up-and-coming military leaders, was raised a rebel, maybe we would not have the leadership that would have trained and led a force that would be able to stem the tide against the Allies.  So what?

If Germany prevailed, Hitler would probably still have come to power, especially if the Depression still occurred, as well as the Reds in Russia, so that most of the events leading to those other wars would still have taken place.

Though Harry Turtledove and other historic speculators may disagree, I just don't think that the US influence on plagues, politics, and prosperity on the world stage were significant enough eighty or so years after the War Between the States that the preservation of the CSA would have had an effect.

[Logismos]

Even taking the results of the Spanish American War into consideration, we were hardly an "imperialistic world power", even in miniature, by the beginning of the last century.  Cuba's independence, our purchase of the Philippines, and Spain's secession of Puerto Rico and Guam hardly made us a significant colonial power.

Likewise, our timidity in entering WWI, and our non-aggressive bargaining at Versailles also shows that imperialistic was hardly an apt description for US.

Innocence, idealism and benevolance characterized the feeling of US foreign policy in the early 1900s. But the US by its very nature was expansionistic and by 1900 had become a minor imperialistic nation. At the start, it did this in the traditional mannor, by annexing territory such as that in the Carribean and Pacific Islands. Later it shifted toward less direct means posessing sovereignty over foreign nations through economic imperialism and occasional military intervention. The US certainly was not seen as a in imperialistic "World Power" by any means and in fact many in the US came to see traditional colonialism as an evil source of conflict. Wilson's Fourteen Points tried to communicate this idea, but it fell upon deaf ears until the same essential idea was later agreed upon in the Atlantic Charter during WWII. But through all this, America's own form of economic imperialism was growing steadily.

[Arkstfan]

The US colonialism was pretty minor compared to the European powers but in large part that was a function of geography. Most resources Europe went out colonizing to get, existed on the North American continent. So what colonial aspirations the US had generally had more to do with securing trade routes and providing stable depots for ship's coal.

Even without American involvement Germany was in ruins by the time we entered World War I. Industrial output had fallen to nearly half the pre-war level and anti-war sentiment was running high. Germany might have been able to hold more territory and negotiate more favorable peace terms but had reached a breaking point and had to stop the war. The main US contribution was stemming the final major German offensive that had been designed to create leverage to broker a favorable peace and participating in the offensive by the Allies that lead to more unfavorable terms. Remember though that the overthrow of the Kaiser led to Germany's collapse and severely colored the treaty negotiations.

One important thing to remember. The post-WWI Germany was artificially propped up for years before the Great Depression because they borrowed from the US to fund reparations. A weaker US unable to fund that borrowing. That borrowing helped keep Germany closer to being stable and may have helped prevent the Beer Hall Putsch from gaining traction.

All alternative history is speculation but it is logical to believe that Hitler's rise power would have happened nine years sooner.

Of course one could also argue that without Hitler, Germany would have gone communist since the communist party was quite strong and Hitler's main opposition. A communist Germany aligned with the Soviets might still hold sway over the entire continents of Europe and Asia.

[Logismos]

Well said, I agree.

[Gracious]

Unfortunately, slavery is still alive and well many places around the world.  The church should be at the front of the battle to end slavery around the world.  However, because it doesn't happen on our doorstep, most Christians ignore it or don't even know it is happening.  While the church turns its back, children are sold into slavery to repay a debt their parents owe.  Others are kidnapped and forced into a slavery that includes prostitution.  Others become slaves as a result of being on the losing end of a conflict.  The church could make a difference in this area if we really wanted to - and the world would see Jesus through us.

I agree with you ... Slavery "IS" still alive & well right here in the ole' USA, as well as many places around the world.  Oh, of course we identify "it" according to it's political correctness (e.i. we've dressed-it-up, to alter it's appearance) ...BUT... a "ROSE" by any other name ... is STILL A ROSE???

[zoonance]

Assuming no interference from the government or other outside cultural pressures ("we" tend to cave pretty quick as a rule), slavery would not only still be practiced, but would be heartily embraced with zealous biblical support!  Along with asking if Slavery is 'authorized'?  godly?  christian?  or even nice? The question could also be asked "Who would be the slaves today?"

[navyvet]

This is a tough question because had South been allowed to break away, then the rest of history after that point would have unfolded differently. The US would have been weaker. In the early 1900s the US wouldn't have had the ability to emulate Europe and become the miniature imperialistic world power that it became by 1900. It probably would not have entered WWI, thus there would have been no Great Depression or Worldwide flu epidemic. Thus no fascist dictators would havehad the opportunity to rise to power and WWII would have never happened, nor a Cold War (including Korean War and Vietnam War) and no genocide of millions of people including Jews. Thus there would have been no justification for Israel to be created in 1948, and so Arab nations wouldn't have any reason to be ticked off at the West for supporting what they see as Israeli occupation and therefore there would be no Islamic Fundamentalist movement and no 9/11 or Iraq war. Of course, other things probably would have occurred instead that would have been equally stupid.
Also, it was because of some of these events that worldwide movements happened that led to the end of imperialism and many social movements that ended old racial social divisions. Apartheid didn't end in South Africa until 1994 or so. Perhaps forced labor would have been replaced by machine labor, but certainly movements toward civil rights would have been a much longer struggle without the Civil War (even though it took 100 years to really get that started in a serious manner).

Had Lincoln not issued his call for troops in April 1861, the seceding states would have been confined to (west to east) Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Upper South states would have stayed in, and Lincoln could have pursued a policy of containment if the Deep South states tried to expand out of their territorial confines. Remember, the firebreathers pushed secession because the strategy of using the federal courts to force slavery on voters not inclined to allow extension into their territories was faltering. Secession had the effect of cutting off the Confederacy's nose to spite its face. Attempts to force its way into Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America would have united the major European powers, the British Empire, and the Union against them.

The Confederacy's fate: either banana republicanism or complete fragmentation and slow return to the Union. Economically, it would have pursued the third world economics of resource extraction. Texas would have probably broken away from the dysfunctional rump of Confederate federalism within a few years to preserve its petroleum assets. Even now, the South is dysfunctional: in reality, as a region, it sucks up more federal spending than it produces in revenues.

Odds are that the British and French would have insisted on emancipation at some point as a condition of continued recognition. Brazil did by 1888.

[ravenlorre]

The USA is concerned with making money - slavery maybe illegal, but we still rely on it.  The illegal migrant worker system is relied on by farmers and construction companies in this country - publicly we condemn it, blame the people in slaved by the economic system; but we are no where near to changing the system.

blessings